The future of electricity in Texas

[mitchntx]

http://www.ercot.com/news/press_releases/2011/nr05-31-11

Wow ...

Projections indicate that in three years, reserve margin will drop by 1/3, go below 10% in 7 years and way into single digits in 10 years.

That means west coast style rolling black-outs if just a couple base-load units trip off-line during high demand periods ... basically mid-May through mid-September.

If ground was broken today on a coal of gas unit, they wouldn't be synced to the grid before 2015. And it would be 2020 before a nuke would sync.

And remember, for every megawatt of renewable energy made available, an equal amount of non-renewable power has to be built and be in stand-by to pick up the load if the wind dies or the rivers run low.

[way2neary]

Hey Mitch,

Great info and thanks for sharing. I didn't know you were a power guy. We will have to talk shop sometime for sure.

[Fbody383]

That means west coast style rolling black-outs if just a couple base-load units trip off-line during high demand periods ... basically mid-May through mid-September.I wouldn't go that far, Cali didn't do themselves any favors by not letting generators recover fuel, O&M, and actually make a profit.


And remember, for every megawatt of renewable energy made available, an equal amount of non-renewable power has to be built and be in stand-by to pick up the load if the wind dies or the rivers run low.Shhh... don't tell the secret. This is especially true with wind, it can be very volatile. Spain has nearly 50% wind; some of us think that's about the most you can have mixed with conventional generation and be "reliable." In this case reliability generally means the power stays on at a price ~ you might not like the price, but you can turn on the lights. With increasing amounts of DR (demand reduction) programs you might be able to see this grow.

Just ask yourself ~ at what price, or rebate would you be willing to turn off the power for short periods at your house? If your annual electricity bill could be $0, how long would you let the utility turn off your power?

California ISO Wind (http://caiso.com/outlook/SystemStatus.html)
Bonneville Power Administration Wind (http://transmission.bpa.gov/business/operations/Wind/baltwg.aspx)

Let's talk a little about hydro: in the Pacific Northwest this year, the snowpack is approximately 120% of normal. Because of that and the wind power installed in the last several years there is an abundance of electricity in the night time hours, think 11:00 pm until 6:00 am.

How abundant?

For the rest of June, if you had extra in those hours, you would have to PAY somebody to take that power. Yes, the current market price for those hours is NEGATIVE.

How does that make you feel about wind generation subsidies?

[BryanL]

http://www.ercot.com/news/press_releases/2011/nr05-31-11


That means west coast style rolling black-outs if just a couple base-load units trip off-line during high demand periods ... basically mid-May through mid-September.

.

EHH-Some blackouts were requested by Enron traders looking to make some profits but that was years ago. But you could be talking last year.

[mitchntx]

I wouldn't go that far, Cali didn't do themselves any favors by not letting generators recover fuel, O&M, and actually make a profit.


I think the rest of the country is just lagging behind what California experienced and for a slightly different reason.

But bottom line ... that little switch on the wall won't work, regardless of fault.

[Al Fernandez]

Oh I dont know, I'm pretty sure I could have a generator up and running by the end of the weekend. ;)
Are power companies profitable? Wouldnt they be more profitable by having demand at or near capacity?

[GlennCMC70]

So how many plants are currently under construction?

[ShadowBolt]

I wouldn't go that far, Cali didn't do themselves any favors by not letting generators recover fuel, O&M, and actually make a profit.

Shhh... don't tell the secret. This is especially true with wind, it can be very volatile. Spain has nearly 50% wind; some of us think that's about the most you can have mixed with conventional generation and be "reliable." In this case reliability generally means the power stays on at a price ~ you might not like the price, but you can turn on the lights. With increasing amounts of DR (demand reduction) programs you might be able to see this grow.

Just ask yourself ~ at what price, or rebate would you be willing to turn off the power for short periods at your house? If your annual electricity bill could be $0, how long would you let the utility turn off your power?

California ISO Wind (http://caiso.com/outlook/SystemStatus.html)
Bonneville Power Administration Wind (http://transmission.bpa.gov/business/operations/Wind/baltwg.aspx)

Let's talk a little about hydro: in the Pacific Northwest this year, the snowpack is approximately 120% of normal. Because of that and the wind power installed in the last several years there is an abundance of electricity in the night time hours, think 11:00 pm until 6:00 am.

How abundant?

For the rest of June, if you had extra in those hours, you would have to PAY somebody to take that power. Yes, the current market price for those hours is NEGATIVE.

How does that make you feel about wind generation subsidies?

I don't like any subsidies. But I bet you could have guessed that.


JJ

[mitchntx]

So how many plants are currently under construction?

Short-term outlook improved


Additional new and refurbished resources added since the December reserve margin forecast include:

565 MW from three new gas units in Jack County;
406 MW from Greens Bayou 5, a 1973 gas unit in Harris County returning to service;
45 MW from Lufkin Biomass, Angelina County, scheduled to be available in time for summer peak.


Ten-year outlook affected by delayed projects

For the first time the summer assessment shows the reserve margins through ten years, instead of five. The reserve margin drops below the target minimum of 13.75 percent beginning in 2014 and stays below, based on currently committed generation.


Four thermal (fossil-fuel) units totaling 3,280 MW which were previously planned for completion 2014-2016 have been delayed a year:

1,380 MW, Pondera King Power Project, Harris County, natural gas, June 2014 to June 2015
620 MW, Las Brisas Energy Center Phase 1, Nueces County, petroleum coke, July 2015 to October 2015
620 MW, Las Brisas Energy Center Phase 2, Nueces County, petroleum coke, July 2016 to October 2016
660 MW, Coleto Creek Unit 2, Goliad County, coal, January 2016 to January 2017.
One megawatt is roughly enough electricity to power 500 average homes under normal conditions in Texas, or about 200 homes during hot weather when air conditioners are running for longer periods of time.
One megawatt is roughly enough electricity to power 500 average homes under normal conditions in Texas, or about 200 homes during hot weather when air conditioners are running for longer periods of time.


The two nukes scheduled for construction near Angleton are mothballed and probably done. TEPCO was a 40%(?) owner of that project but bailed to focus on rebuilding Japan's electrical infrastucture.

[mitchntx]

I don't like any subsidies. But I bet you could have guessed that.


JJ

In this day and age of uncertain financial climates, no one is willing to spend $15B, recoup their investment over spend 40 years wait 10 years to start earning it.

So the government will have to subsidize and guarantee the money.

[ShadowBolt]

In this day and age of uncertain financial climates, no one is willing to spend $15B, recoup their investment over spend 40 years wait 10 years to start earning it.

So the government will have to subsidize and guarantee the money.

15B is no money for a Siemens or a GE. If the profit is high enough someone will do it. But if they can get the government to guarantee it all the better.


JJ

[Fbody383]

15B is no money for a Siemens or a GE. If the profit is high enough someone will do it. But if they can get the government to guarantee it all the better.I assure you it's a ton of money; part of the issue is getting the power sold on a forward basis. You have to sell it first to get financing because prices will be much lower once you turn it on.


I think the rest of the country is just lagging behind what California experienced and for a slightly different reason. Maybe I'm completely jaded from the process, but my recollection is that California could have had plenty of power if they had elected to pay for it. A foriegn utility was able to get them to pre-pay for power, something nobody else could do.