Originally Posted by
AI#97
I'm likely being overly optimistic, but yes, I think the track will close but I am not shedding a tear till I see asphalt getting ripped up. The project was stated last year to be a $90 million deal, now $55M....? It also says he "hopes to break ground in June" which tells me there are no set plans for bulldozers to come in or contracts in place to do so or a design to start contracts on. The fact that the city JUST NOW decided they wanted to accept design review of the development to make sure it meets the planning of CS going forward tells me that the "development" is back at square one again.
Major hurdles to overcome:
1. Interest rates are rumored to be going back up and that always scares off investors in BIG Developments.
2. There are only two entrances to the development for 1400 homes. TX 6 and through Pebble Creek. Those folks in PC don't want all that traffic coming through their neighborhood. Imagine morning and evening rush hour for that many homes...times 1.4 cars per home average.
3. Property taxes will be higher by a lot out there than living in the city AND you will not have EMS services. you get Volunteer FD and Sheriff's dept. CS has no plans to annex as they would need to build a fire station and add several police officers. CS doesn't have the tax revenue to do so any time soon. CS would likely wait till the development...IF the development ever reaches 50% build out.
4. Town and jobs are growing to the west...follow the new walmart and the new A&M Health Science Center. Folks don't want to drive all the way across morning school traffic to get to work when there are houses out on that side of Bryan headed to Snook. There is also an excess of flat farm land that doesn't require millions in removing a 50 year old race track.
5. TxDot is gonna have to pay for a new overpass at the entry to the neighborhood...good luck.
6. New housing in CS is not moving as fast as it was 18 months ago. Builders have a lot of inventory in town....why build outside of town if it costs more?
7. Well, it just doesn't make sense when there is plenty of cheaper land closer to town.
Like I said, I am going to remain optimistic. I even told Charles Von Schmidt (Blue Bonnet Racing Circuit) to find out what the magic number is to buy TWS. There is always a magic number and I have always thought this might be a dog and pony show to bump the perceived value of the property so someone would buy it and let the current owner scoot away with a profit for just sitting on the property. I believe they are short on finding the money to develop the property and a bunch of small town home builders don't have the funds to jump in and buy lots any time soon. Too risky to tear the place down in this market when you could sell it as a race track and possibly double their money to just walk away tomorrow as opposed to taking the risk and MAYBE building out 30% of the home sites over the next 10 years. The housing demand in CS is student housing and they don't want to live 10 miles from campus...nor do they need to. If I were the current owners of TWS, I'd cash out ASAP for say $10-13M, and take that money back to Houston where the market is booming for people needing housing for all the jobs coming to town.
I'm going to keep my dark sparkly goggles on and fingers crossed.